That is Sizzling Pod, The Verge’s e-newsletter about podcasting and the audio business. Join here for extra.
Good day! Apologies for the late ship, I’ve been buried in Sizzling Pod Summit prep. I promise it is going to be price it! We’re placing collectively a fantastic lineup for 2024. We’re nonetheless engaged on our invitation record — if you happen to’re curious about attending, let us know here.
That is concerning the time yakky media of us like myself come out with predictions for subsequent yr. Nick Quah revealed takes from individuals throughout the business at present for Vulture. Yesterday, The Podglomerate’s Joni Deutsch had a bit for Nieman Lab along with her personal predictions. I extremely advocate trying out each!
In the present day, I don’t have predictions a lot as tales on which I’m preserving a detailed watch. Let’s get into it.
Expertise offers up for renewal
A lot of these big-money, multiyear offers introduced in 2020 and 2021 are arising for renewal in 2024. Firms spent tens of tens of millions of {dollars} (or, in Joe Rogan’s case, lots of of tens of millions of {dollars}) to grab up high podcasting expertise. Now, they should resolve: was it price it, and can it’s price it to play that recreation once more?
As media firms turn into extra austere of their spending, it’s simple to imagine that we received’t see these minimal assure offers once more. However celeb chat reveals, for higher or worse, have endured. Rogan continues to be untouchable, SmartLess is greater than ever, and Apple simply named Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ podcast Present of the 12 months. One agent instructed me that regardless of the doom and gloom of the business, their shoppers have had a development yr. These hosts have audiences, and audio firms are going to should pay as much as hold them.
That’s not to say everybody will get a renewal or {that a} renewal will imply the identical sort of deal as earlier than. Preparations during which the minimal assure is smaller however the income potential is increased (like with Trevor Noah’s Spotify deal) may turn into extra frequent.
And never everybody could get a renewal, in spite of everything! It’s onerous to see how Spotify wouldn’t struggle for Rogan or SiriusXM wouldn’t pay to maintain Ashley Flowers. However perhaps that’s much less of a precedence for, say, Dax Shepard. Armchair Knowledgeable ranked ninth on Apple Podcasts in 2020 and was snatched up by Spotify in 2021. Since then, it has misplaced its buzz, and Spotify determined to distribute it throughout platforms earlier this yr (which the corporate has not finished with its two greatest stars, Rogan and Alex Cooper). In the present day, Armchair Knowledgeable ranks thirtieth on Spotify and 118th on Apple. That’s nothing to smell at, however I’d be stunned if he acquired one other $50 million deal.
Regulatory modifications in Europe
Some long-simmering tech regulation in Europe goes to come back to a head subsequent yr. This has been championed at the start by Spotify, which has railed against Apple’s control over in-app funds for subscriptions and audiobooks. But when issues shake out the best way the EU intends, it may make for a extra aggressive audio business total.
In 2022, the European Union adopted the Digital Markets Act as regulation, which prevents “gatekeeper” firms (Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, ByteDance, and Microsoft) from using practices that derail smaller tech firms. There’s a lot concerned, however one of many key tenets is banning these firms from self-preferencing their very own services and products in locations akin to search (Google) or marketplaces (the App Retailer). These firms have till March to be in compliance with the brand new regulation.
This might doubtlessly be nice for Spotify’s backside line. It may additionally make it simpler for audio startups to compete within the open market. The tangible results within the US subsequent yr can be minimal, if they’re something in any respect. But when the following nice audio firm can emerge on this new panorama, the podcast business could have one thing to achieve in the long term.
Extra AI (duh)
This yr, I observed a definite shift within the business’s perspective towards AI. Once I left for maternity go away in April, individuals (together with me!!) gave the impression to be actually nervous about what improvements in AI expertise would imply for podcasting, particularly as examples principally got here within the type of totally AI-generated podcasts like The Joe Rogan AI Experience. Once I acquired again in September, it appeared like individuals had reached the stage of AI acceptance.
I don’t suppose meaning we’ll see too many vital podcasts which might be completely AI. As an alternative, I feel it means we’ll see AI seep into podcasting in refined methods. Voice cloning expertise, like that by ElevenLabs, is getting higher and has been utilized by studios like Dear Media for Plausible: The Coco Berthmann Story and Vox Media Podcast Community for Land of the Giants’ season on Tesla. Spotify’s new instrument that mechanically interprets podcasts into different languages may very well be a game-changer for scaling reveals. And there are in all probability 1,000,000 different methods it may be used that I’m not occupied with as a result of that’s merely not how my mind works.
If my vibe earlier this yr was that the robots will destroy all media jobs (nonetheless a chance!!), I’m extra hopeful that there are methods AI might be deployed that don’t basically alter the core of a podcast.
A yr for reinvention
I do know you’re already conscious of this, however a lot of people were laid off this year. It has been devastating to observe proficient producers, engineers, and advert professionals be minimize adrift due to firms that acquired into podcasting and not using a stable technique. Sadly, a few of them received’t be capable of wait round for these jobs to come back again and can transfer on to different sectors. However some will stay and make issues that push the business ahead.
I wish to be clear, this isn’t a alternative for good jobs that enable individuals to dwell their lives whereas making good work (and, you realize, have medical insurance). However out from beneath the thumb of company overlords who demand one more true crime present or haphazardly throw in programmatic advertisements or impose (after which change) metrics, individuals in podcasting will innovate. Perhaps meaning funky present ideas that may by no means get authorized by a SiriusXM or Spotify. Or that might imply alternate enterprise fashions and possession constructions. Or perhaps we’ll even get that long-anticipated repair for podcast discovery.
This time final yr, issues (rightfully) appeared bleak. And other people have loads of proper to really feel betrayed by the businesses that threw cash at podcasting simply to drop it a couple of years later. However I’m hopeful that 2024 will deliver good issues in podcasting, although in all probability not from the individuals or locations you count on.
Something you’re occupied with going into the brand new yr? Be happy to succeed in out at [email protected].
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