I made an inventory of ten tech predictions for 2023 in a Forbes piece I wrote in December 2022. And right here we are actually in December 2023. So how did these predictions – spanning AI, house, hypersonics, and Quantum Computing – end up?
Let’s get to analyzing the place we’re with every of the projections.
AI and LLMs 10X bigger than GPT-3 going mainstream.
Huawei’s PanGu-Σ is roughly 10X bigger than GPT-3. And apparently it was skilled on Huawei Ascend processors. GPT-4’s measurement is unknown, however it’s seemingly a mix of specialists (MoE) mannequin made up of an unknown variety of massive fashions. So, we positively have a 10X mannequin, and we even have a mainstream mannequin that utilizing MoE might simply be 10X bigger, even when particular person fashions inside the MoE ensemble are GPT-3 sized. An attention-grabbing paper outlines Huawei’s work which you’ll be able to view right here.
Launch of IBM’s Condor Quantum Pc with 1000 qubits.
Whereas IBM did make vital developments in quantum computing in 2023, they didn’t launch a 1000-qubit pc. As a substitute, they debuted the IBM Quantum System Two with three IBM Heron processors, that are extremely performant quantum processors with considerably improved error charges. Every Heron processor offers 133 qubits. IBM’s focus has shifted to error correction quite than simply uncooked measurement.
Development of self-hosting and decentralized IT programs.
This occurred in spades with the #homelab pattern gathering vital steam and issues with mainstream social networks resulted in large person progress on decentralized social networks. Moreover, near the top of 2023, the decentralized blockchain ecosystem gathered steam once more.
Rise of different EV producers alongside Tesla.
Tesla maintained its lead because the world’s largest EV maker, however Chinese language producer BYD is catching up quickly, now just some proportion factors behind. This has occurred and is a pattern that may solely collect additional momentum within the months forward. Tesla has determined to counter competitors by participating in a value battle, however it stays to be seen who in the end wins this battle a couple of years down the street, with Chinese language firms having an intrinsic benefit in low-cost manufacturing.
The primary vacationer journey across the moon by SpaceX.
SpaceX made great progress all by means of this 12 months, as did the remainder of the House 2.0 Business. However the first vacationer journey to the moon has not but taken off! From all the general public area data I’ve entry to, it positively appears shut however with no particular launch date introduced, I’d say it is a prediction that didn’t become correct.
Launch of China’s first house telescope, the CSST.
The Chinese language house company introduced that Xuntian, the primary Chinese language house telescope can be launched someday in 2025 from China’s Wenchang House Launch Heart. We missed the timing on this one!
Finish of the Russia-Ukraine battle.
The battle has not ended however has diminished in depth and maybe even led to all however identify. After the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive there’s a clear impasse, a discount in international curiosity, and a transfer towards negotiations. Now, almost half of Ukrainians seem open to compromise with Russia to finish the battle per a Ukrainian polling agency, Score. You may learn extra about this right here.
Progress within the Metaverse imaginative and prescient.
Away from the highlight of 2022, actual progress was made this 12 months. Siemens invested 500M Euros in industrial metaverse efforts whereas high shopper corporations like Adidas, Coach, and D&G have been on the Metaverse Vogue Week earlier this 12 months. Digital twins are transferring full pace forward, and Apple’s Imaginative and prescient Professional launch was an necessary first step in Apple’s dedication to creating this imaginative and prescient a actuality. The metaverse hasn’t had the most effective press since Fb’s bungled launch, however it’s an inevitable expertise that may materialize for sure.
Checks of the primary hypersonic plane.
US aerospace firm Hermeus was awarded a DIU contract earlier this 12 months and has now began testing the US-made Quarterhorse MK0 Hypersonic plane. That is an thrilling improvement being intently matched in different components of the world, specifically, China. You may learn extra about Hermeus’ Quarterhorse right here.
A return to the workplace post-COVID-19 pandemic.
Amazon’s CEO Andy Jassy captured the pattern instantly when he addressed employees who do not need to return to the workplace: ‘It’s in all probability not going to work out.’ Per Fortune Journal, “work at home charges have dropped to a low of 26% .. as employers make returning to the workplace their north star.” We’re not in a future the place most individuals will work at home. And the outcomes from our final COVID-era try have been clearly fairly blended.
I’ll be publishing my predictions for 2024 quickly. I hope you stick round to learn and opine.
Blissful Holidays!