That is the second in a set of three blogs about projections for digital storage and reminiscence for the next yr that we now have been doing for some time. Our first weblog targeted on the most recent developments and projections for magnetic recording (HDDs and magnetic tape). This weblog focuses on varied varieties of solid-state non-volatile reminiscence and storage. We are going to speak in regards to the newest developments in flash reminiscence, DRAM, NVMe, NVMe-oF, together with computational storage and CXL and the way it will change the best way we do computing.
On the shut of 2023 demand for all storage and reminiscence applied sciences has been down for a couple of yr and a half for shopper, shopper and server functions. This was because of a big extent to the tip of the pandemic and the discount in shopper demand and the normalization of provide chains. Particularly many storage clients and knowledge facilities have been left with massive inventories of storage merchandise. As a consequence, NAND flash and HDD corporations have reduce on manufacturing and customarily down sized to manage their prices.
The drop in NAND demand resulted in important worth declines by most of 2023 to the purpose the place NAND flash was principally promoting at the price of manufacturing. As a consequence, in September Samsung reduce its NAND flash manufacturing by 50% and different flash reminiscence producers made comparable manufacturing cuts. The NAND flash corporations additionally reported that they targeted their manufacturing on lower than 128 layer flash.
TrendForce projected that this these cuts in unit and capability manufacturing would cease the NAND flash worth erosion within the 4th quarter of 2023 and will enhance $/GB costs by 5%. The analyst agency lately mentioned that enterprise SSD income grew 4.2% in 3Q23 and this was anticipated to extend by 20% in 4Q23. TrendForce additionally projected that DDR5 DRAM costs may rise 3-8% in 4Q23. WDC lately mentioned that NAND flash costs may rise by 55% within the coming quarters. These are encouraging indicators that the solid-state storage market is stabilizing and might stay up for stable progress in 2024.
There are numerous drivers for larger storage demand in 2024 and past and this could drive demand for storage gadgets. This seems like it’s going to drive new capital spending going ahead. Semi reported that memory-related capital expenditures noticed a pointy decline in 2023. NAND gear gross sales are predicted to have dropped by 49% to $8.8 billion in 2023 nevertheless it expects this spending will surge 21% to $10.7 billion in 2024 and rise one other 51% to $16.2 billion in 2025. This in signifies projections for demand will increase beginning in 2024.
DRAM gear gross sales are anticipated to stay secure, rising by 1% and three% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Supported by steady know-how migration and increasing demand for high-bandwidth reminiscence (HBM), DRAM gear section gross sales are anticipated to extend a further 20% to $15.5 billion in 2025.
NAND flash is the dominant main storage (storage for lively in-process knowledge) in knowledge facilities and enterprise functions and it’s typically the one storage utilized in shopper gadgets resembling good telephones and in most private computer systems. In bigger amenities lively knowledge lives on SSDs with colder knowledge usually stored on arduous disk drives (HDDs) and magnetic tape.
Nevertheless, there are corporations, resembling Pure Storage, who venture that with decrease costs and higher endurance utilizing QLC NAND flash that it’s going to displace demand for HDDs in secondary storage. Whether or not this occurs to a big diploma in knowledge facilities relies upon upon whether or not HAMR HDDs are profitable in enabling worth declines for HDD storage, persevering with the desire for HDDs for storing colder knowledge.
On the 2023 Flash Reminiscence Summit, SK hynix introduced that they’d made 321-layer 3D NAND flash (their 4D flash) however indicated that this could not go into mass manufacturing till 1H 2025. They mentioned that this was doable by lowering the stress within the supplies, with a number of overlay alignment corrections and with a more cost effective course of. This prolonged introduction date is consistent with flash reminiscence corporations slowing their introduction of upper density reminiscence till the marketplace for NAND flash recovers.
SK hynix mentioned that it began mass manufacturing of 238-layer NAND merchandise in March 2023 for cellular gadgets. SK hynix additionally mentioned that it was engaged on enhanced key-value computational storage gadgets for AI workloads. The corporate can be sampling processing in reminiscence (PIM) merchandise for AI functions.
Kioxia and Western Digital and different NAND flash distributors are transferring to bonding separate logic and reminiscence wafers collectively quite than making them on the identical wafer. This permits the next reminiscence density and permits separate growth of the logic and flash reminiscence parts. This method was pioneers by Chinese language flash reminiscence firm YMTC just a few years in the past.
NVMe is now the dominant flash reminiscence interface and NVMe-oF (over cloth) the place the material is commonly ethernet, is turning into frequent in knowledge facilities. NVMe-oF is getting used to create swimming pools of solid-state storage that may be shared between CPUs and servers.
This pooling and sharing of storage is known as disaggregation (breaking down the assorted components of servers right into a shared pool), which software program can then use to create composable infrastructure supporting digital gadgets or containers that may be created or destroyed as wanted. This type of pooling and composability is being prolonged to reminiscence with the Compute Specific Hyperlink (CXL) interconnect.
CXL supplies for a switched community for reminiscence of varied varieties with completely different prices and efficiency. CXL 3.0 permits creating reminiscence swimming pools that may be shared between CPUs. There are some merchandise being introduced in 2023 for reminiscence pooling with CXL and we count on some shipments of merchandise together with these advances in 2024.
Marvell, Microchip, Phision and different controller corporations are supporting CXL (in addition to NVMe) of their controllers as a method of attaining full knowledge heart composability that features reminiscence pooling in addition to storage pooling.
There was a lot dialogue this yr about utilizing NAND flash as a part of upcoming CXL reminiscence programs in 2023. This effort is partially pushed by a requirement for cheaper reminiscence to help DRAM for the reason that finish of Optane reminiscence growth. SK hynix mentioned that they’re engaged on two varieties of CXL reminiscence modules on the 2023 FMS, one targeted on bandwidth reminiscence growth (BME) and one on capability reminiscence growth (CME) in addition to computational reminiscence options (CMS). The slide under describes the BME, CME and CMS reminiscence module gadgets.
Different main NAND corporations, resembling Samsung have additionally launched their very own CXL-based NAND flash merchandise in addition to controller firm Microchip and impartial SSD corporations resembling Fadu. Kioxia believes that larger CLX storage density utilizing flash reminiscence permits for much less knowledge transfers and elevated processing effectivity for functions resembling AI. They see utilizing their BiCS flash for learn intensive CXL functions and XL-Flash (with single degree cells) for random learn/write entry reminiscence growth. Samsung is selling its CXL semantic reminiscence SSD for AI programs as proven under.
Kioxia additionally talked about placing extra intelligence into their SSDs, with extra highly effective SoCs on enterprise SSDs that permit offloading RAID capabilities with their Gen 5 PCI merchandise, to scale back CPU masses. In addition they talked about utilizing flash reminiscence storage for personal AI fashions. Samsung spoke about SSDs for zonal management automotive functions. Samsung additionally introduced excessive efficiency SSDs for generative AI functions. The corporate was displaying its 256TB SSD which might be geared in direction of constructing petabyte-scale stable state storage options.
Moreover developments from the 2023 FMS there have been additionally some related developments on the 2023 IEDM convention. For example, Macronix has a technique for therapeutic put on utilizing warmth on NOR flash. They plan to make use of this on particular areas on the die for the reason that heating parts to do the refresh take up actual property. The corporate additionally had a paper on 3D NOR and 4Gbit die anticipated in 2024.
Throughout WDC’s FMS speak appeared into the assorted components for rising flash reminiscence density and the impression they make on density enhancements (see determine under). Vertical scaling (the variety of layers) has a smaller contribution at this time than it did previously since extra layers means longer course of time. Lateral scaling (the density of the reminiscence holes can have the largest impression, adopted by logical density (bits per cell). Architectural adjustments, resembling bonding logic and reminiscence wafers collectively may enhance reminiscence density.
Though Intel’s Optane reminiscence began to wind down in 2022, varied different non-volatile reminiscence applied sciences are ramping up in embedded utility, initially changing NOR flash for code storage and a few SRAM for cache reminiscence. These embrace magnetic random-access reminiscence (MRAM) and varied resistive RAM (RRAM) applied sciences. TSMC, Samsung and different foundries have produced varied embedded gadgets for wearable and automotive functions, as well as, the rising recognition of chiplet know-how and the brand new common chiplet interconnect categorical (UCIe) interface might drive discrete reminiscence chiplet demand, each for DRAM in addition to rising recollections.
Because the chart under from the Coughlin Associates and Goal Evaluation Emerging Memories Branch Outreport signifies, progress in each embedded and discrete non-volatile reminiscence know-how (represented by MRAM) may drive rising capability shipments to a probable $59B of income by 2033.
On the 2023 IEEE MRAM Discussion board it seems that embedded reminiscence functions are driving growth and functions for rising recollections. Particularly foundry corporations resembling Samsung are creating MRAM reminiscence merchandise to allow the subsequent era of automotive functions as proven under. That is driving growth of 14nm and even all the way down to 5nm merchandise within the subsequent few years.
Though 2023 ended with demand down for every type of storage and reminiscence applied sciences for a second yr, we count on that demand will recuperate in 2024 to fulfill rising storage demand and to realize efficiencies from the most recent applied sciences that embrace advances in NAND, DRAM, CXL and varied rising recollections.
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