The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has led to sweeping proclamations — and dire warnings — about the future of the job market. Some hail the technology as a revolutionary boon for human productivity; others lament it as the harbinger of large-scale layoffs or even a death knell for human creativity.
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The reality — which is only starting to take shape — is likely to be much more nuanced than either of these two extreme views would suggest. This is illustrated by new research from Georgia State University, which found that the effects of AI on human labor are a mixed bag: Some forms of automation are displacing human workers, while others are actually driving job growth.
Different kinds of AI, different skills
Led by GSU finance professor Mark Chen, the research analyzed more than five million patents filed between 2007 and 2023 to determine how AI was affecting business productivity and market value. Chen and his coauthors identified seven key domains of human labor that can now, to one degree or another, be automated: language, perception, motor control, engagement (that is, an ability to fluently interact with human users), decision-making, learning, and creativity.
The impacts of AI upon the job market vary depending on which of those seven types of tasks the model has been trained to perform.
AI tools specializing in engagement, learning, and creativity “significantly increase employment in occupations exposed to these types of AI,” according to the researchers. These are mostly white collar roles in industries like finance, engineering, design, and entertainment. Generative AI tools and other forms of AI, in other words, are actually driving job growth.
The opposite is true for forms of automation that are designed to carry out specific, repetitive tasks, across industries like farming and construction, which have traditionally hinged on physical labor. In these sectors, AI tools specializing in perception (“Gathering, organizing, and identifying sensory information from external stimuli to gain an awareness of the environment”) and motor control (“Guiding or controlling the movement of physical objects in response to the environment”) are measurably displacing human workers.
According to a recent report from Forrester, the latter trend could accelerate in the coming years with the rise of humanoid robots, a rare novelty today but an emerging technology that could soon become much more common.
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The researchers also found that while replacing human workers with AI can save employers money, it doesn’t boost overall productivity. “What this suggests is that if displacing AI innovations (i.e., those related to perception and motor control) do bring significant value to innovating firms, the likely channel for this is via lowered production costs rather than increased top-line performance.”
Human labor is still the determining factor
Just as AI’s market impact varies according to its specialty, the researchers argue that there is no single, all-purpose prescription for employers when it comes to adopting AI.
Leaving aside the human cost, the potential financial benefits of automation hinge largely on the labor market. If businesses have a high number of skilled workers whom they can hire, then they stand to gain from using AI to augment employees’ workflows.
Also: This GitHub trick lets ChatGPT dissect your code in minutes – here’s howOn the other hand, the report notes that “when firms face greater frictions and impediments to external hiring, the value gains from augmenting AI innovations are lower or insignificant.”
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