What’s on the table at this year’s UN climate conference

As I covered last week, Trump’s election will virtually actually lead to much less progress on chopping emissions than we would have seen underneath a extra climate-focused administration. However arguably a fair greater deal than home progress (or lack thereof) can be how Trump shifts the nation’s local weather place on the worldwide stage.

The US has emitted extra carbon air pollution into the environment than any other country, it at the moment leads the world in per capita emissions, and it’s the world’s richest financial system. If anyone must be a pacesetter on the desk in talks about local weather finance, it’s the US. And but, Trump is coming into energy quickly, and we’ve all seen this movie earlier than. 

Final time Trump was in workplace, he pulled the US out of the Paris Settlement. He’s made guarantees to do it once more—and will go one step additional by backing out of the UN Framework Conference on Local weather Change (UNFCCC) altogether. If leaving the Paris Settlement is strolling away from the desk, withdrawing from the UNFCCC is like hopping on a rocket and blasting in a special path. It’s a extra drastic motion and may very well be more durable to reverse sooner or later, although specialists additionally aren’t sure if Trump could technically do this on his own.

The uncertainty of what occurs subsequent within the US is a cloud hanging over these negotiations. “That is going to be more durable as a result of we do not have a dynamic and pushy and assured US serving to us on local weather motion,” mentioned Camilla Born, an unbiased local weather advisor and former UK senior official at COP26, throughout an online event last week hosted by Carbon Transient.

Some specialists are assured that others will step as much as fill the hole. “There are various drivers of local weather motion past the White Home,” mentioned Mohamed Adow, founding director of Energy Shift Africa, on the CarbonBrief occasion.

If I might characterize the present vibe within the local weather world, it’s uncertainty. However the negotiations over the following couple of weeks might present clues to what we are able to anticipate for the following few years. Simply how a lot will a Trump presidency sluggish world local weather motion? Will the European Union step up? Might this cement the rise of China as a local weather chief? We’ll be watching all of it.

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Associated studying

In case you need some further context from the previous couple of years of those conferences, right here’s my coverage of last year’s fight at COP28 over a transition away from fossil fuels, and a newsletter about negotiations over the “loss and damages” fund at COP27.

For the nitty-gritty particulars about what’s on the desk at COP29, try this very thorough explainer from Carbon Brief.