Water Cooler Small Talk: The Birthday Paradox πŸŽ‚πŸŽ‰ | by Maria Mouschoutzi, PhD | Sep, 2024


Data Science | Statistics

A look at the counterintuitive mathematics of shared birthdays

Image created by author using GPT-4

Water cooler small talk is a special kind of small talk, typically observed in office spaces around a water cooler. There, employees frequently share all kinds of corporate gossip, myths, and legends, inaccurate scientific opinions, indiscreet personal anecdotes, or outright lies. Anything goes. So, in my Water Cooler Small Talk posts, I discuss strange and usually scientifically invalid opinions I have overheard in the office that have literally left me speechless.

Here’s the water cooler opinion of today’s post:

I work in an office floor with 60+ people, and last week two of them had their birthdays on the same day. Realizing they shared their birthday, they had a conversation somewhere along the following lines:

– I cannot believe we have our birthdays on the same day!

– Yes, what are the chances?

..and everyone commented on how strange it was. A crazy, karmic coincidence…

🌌πŸ₯³

But for real, what are the chances? With a quick estimation, one may think that the chances of such an event should be very low…

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