Using Objective Bayesian Inference to Interpret Election Polls | by Ryan Burn

How to build a polls-only objective Bayesian model that goes from a state polling lead to probability of winning the state

With the presidential election approaching, a question I, and I expect many others have, is does a candidate’s polling in a state translates to their probability of winning the state.

In this blog post, I want to explore the question using objective Bayesian inference ([3]) and election results from 2016 and 2020. The goal will be to build a simple polls-only model that takes a candidate’s state polling lead and produces a posterior distribution for the probability of the candidate winning the state

Figure 1: An example posterior distribution for predicted win probability using FiveThirtyEight polling data from 2016 and 2020 ([1, 2]) and a snapshot of polling in Pennsylvania. The figure also shows the 5-th, 50-th, and 95-th percentiles of the prediction posterior distribution. Figure by author.

where the posterior distribution measures our belief in how predictive polls are.

For the model, I’ll use logistic regression with a single unknown weight variable, w:

Taking the 2020 and 2016 elections as observations and using a suitable prior, π, we can then produce a posterior distribution for the unknown weight

where

Source link

#Objective #Bayesian #Inference #Interpret #Election #Polls #Ryan #Burn #Oct

Unlock the potential of cutting-edge AI solutions with our comprehensive offerings. As a leading provider in the AI landscape, we harness the power of artificial intelligence to revolutionize industries. From machine learning and data analytics to natural language processing and computer vision, our AI solutions are designed to enhance efficiency and drive innovation. Explore the limitless possibilities of AI-driven insights and automation that propel your business forward. With a commitment to staying at the forefront of the rapidly evolving AI market, we deliver tailored solutions that meet your specific needs. Join us on the forefront of technological advancement, and let AI redefine the way you operate and succeed in a competitive landscape. Embrace the future with AI excellence, where possibilities are limitless, and competition is surpassed.