Regulatory, technological and market forecasts

• In what ways has the US set the pace for cryptocurrency legislation? Why were stablecoins the first type of digital currency to be regulated?
• What insights can be gained from the fact that stablecoin transaction volumes surpassed that of Visa and Mastercard combined in 2024, but fewer than 10 major economies around the world have adopted stablecoin-specific legislation?
• What progress has the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) and Hong Kong’s Stablecoin Ordinance made? Can its success be measured?
• How can stablecoin sales result in collapsing Treasury prices, increasing interest rates increasing, and destablising financial markets and economies?
• What potential is there for cross-border collaboration and information sharing, transparent disclosures of reserve composition, redemption rights and associated risks, and compliance with global AML/CFT measures?
  
   

Stablecoins are rapidly becoming a cornerstone of digital finance, and the US is leading the way. With bipartisan momentum behind the GENIUS Act and related legislation, the US government is establishing a federal framework that could reshape the global stablecoin market. It is evident that US policy leadership is influencing financial dynamics and how other jurisdictions are responding to the rise of dollar-backed digital assets.

Considering the competitive advantages built into the US framework, including provisions that favour bank-issued stablecoins and tokenised deposits, by restricting nonbank issuers from paying interest, the legislation creates a strategic niche for traditional financial institutions, potentially accelerating adoption while preserving the integrity of the banking system. Some argue that this could drive stablecoin market growth to $2 trillion by 2030, reinforcing the dollar’s dominance in digital finance.

Alongside this, China has called for accelerated issuance of yuan-based stablecoins, while the EU has raised concerns about financial stability and monetary policy transmission. European regulators are now reconsidering their stance on non-Euro stablecoins, despite earlier prohibitions under MiCAR. Meanwhile, jurisdictions like Hong Kong are moving ahead with stablecoin-specific regulations that balance innovation with consumer protection.

The future of stablecoins could be explored through a geopolitical lens. By offering critical insights into how regulatory frameworks, market structures, and international competition are shaping the next phase of digital money, financial institutions, policymakers, and innovators can understand to navigate this rapidly evolving landscape.

Register for this PREDICT 2026 Finextra Research webinar to join our panel of industry experts who will discuss the ways the US set the pace for cryptocurrency legislation.