An Oath Keeper Talks Civil War Over Pastrami on Rye

In our interview, Arroyo took a bipartisan view on who he believes could instigate a future conflict.

“Let’s just say, hypothetically, the left loses this race, which is looking like that could happen,” Arroyo said. “The radical left is violent and can mobilize a lot of people to do a lot of damage. The right, if they get pushed too far, have all the guns, all the training, all the experience.” (Data does not support a both-sides approach; a report earlier this year by the National Institute of Justice found that far-right attacks continue to significantly outpace all other types of terrorism and domestic violent extremism, including from the left).

But Arroyo said it’s “very likely” that if Trump loses, “the right wing, the Republican Party, some nutcases, are going to get together and start a shooting war.”

Hours earlier on Zoom, Arroyo was speaking to members of other county preparedness teams from across the country and told WIRED that there was only one thing on everyone’s mind.

“The main concern right now is the potential of civil unrest because of the election,” Arroyo said. “Whoever wins, one side’s going to be pissed off, and the other side, the radical-left side, is going to be more pissed, and they’re more known for burning cities to the ground when they don’t get their way. The right-wing conservative party in this country is not known for doing any of that type of thing.” (When WIRED interjected and asked about the Capitol riot, for example, Arroyo brushed it off, claiming that it was orchestrated by the left).

Rather than engaging, his advice to his members is to hunker down.

Arroyo also floated the possibility of “black swan” events—which have become a popular fantasy among conspiracy theorists. A black swan event is one that has a great effect and could not have been predicted but which looks in hindsight to have been inevitable; conspiracists now treat the term as a cousin of the “false flag” and define it as an extreme occurrence orchestrated by nefarious forces to distract from a sinister plot. “They want to take [Trump] out so he can’t get back in the White House,” said Arroyo. “To create an environment in which they can declare martial law—create a scenario, some type of black swan event to halt the election.”

Jim and Janet Arroyo moved from California to Yavapai County in the early 2000s to escape what they saw as overly restrictive gun laws.

In Arizona, they found a state much more in tune to their gun needs.

“This is a big gun culture. Arizona has the largest amount of privately owned machine guns in the country,” Arroyo boasts. “Yavapai County has the largest amount of machine guns in the state of Arizona. That’s our claim to fame.”

(A 2021 report by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives shows that Arizona didn’t even make the top 10 states for machine gun ownership, and California ownership was significantly higher.)

But just as Arroyo was boasting about Arizona’s welcoming approach to guns, the barman approached him and said he wasn’t allowed to have his gun in the bar. Arroyo told him he wasn’t drinking, but the barman insisted. “Not a problem,” Arroyo said, and brought the gun out to his jeep.

You can follow all of WIRED’s 2024 presidential election coverage here.