Over 13 million players are expected to purchase a Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025, according to a new report from Ampere Analysis.
The data firm predicts that the console will move 32.2 million units next year, 51.2 million by 2027, and 104.3 million by the end of the decade.
It noted that while initial sales of the Switch 2 will be higher “due to pent up demand from existing Switch users,” the console will see a “slower rate of sales” by 2030.
It came to this conclusion due to US tariffs adding “a layer of uncertainty” to the Switch 2’s performance outlook, and there not being a “pandemic-driven surge” in sales like with the original Switch.
Looking at the overall console market, Ampere Analysis predicts that Nintendo’s hardware share will increase by almost 50% by 2027.
As for standing against other gaming handhelds like the Steam Deck and the PlayStation Portal, the data firm said these devices were not “a significant threat to Switch 2 adoption”.
“[These] are niche in terms of sales and are often priced significantly higher than Nintendo’s new console, while offering a different experience,” it explained.
In fact, Ampere Analysis predicts that Switch 2 sales will surpass the lifetime sales of “the entire PC gaming handheld category” in its launch year.
For example, it highlighted how “56% of Steam Deck owners also use a Nintendo Switch” but only “1.3% of Switch owners consider the Steam Deck to be their primary console device”.
As for Switch 2 software, Ampere Analysis expects new titles to represent “a $7 billion to $8 billion market over the next two years, growing to $10 billion in 2028”.
Much like the original Switch, the Switch 2 didn’t launch with many day one titles. However, the data firm emphasised how Switch 2 ‘Edition’ games and upgrades to previous titles will encourage existing Switch owners to spend more on the new console.
It also identified the strength of third-party content for Switch 2, which will “bring Nintendo into more direct competition with Sony and Xbox consoles” with blockbuster ports of titles such as Cyberpunk 2077 and Final Fantasy 7 Remake.
Nintendo’s partnership with FromSoftware to produce The Duskbloods as a Switch 2 exclusive will also help “engage part-time Switch users” in focusing more of their attention on the console compared to PlayStation and Xbox, the firm said.
Elsewhere, Ampere Analysis suggested there was an “untapped opportunity” for Nintendo to utilise in-game monetisation on its platforms.
In 2024, it held a 4% share of the console market for in-game and DLC monetisation compared to 31% and 65% on Microsoft and Sony platforms, respectively.
It predicts that by 2027, Nintendo’s share could more than double to 10% if the platform holder focuses its efforts on this area of its business.
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