Quantum Uncertainty Shouldn’t Stop Investors From Making The Right Bet

It’s a hellishly overused term, but if there’s one emerging technology space that genuinely deserves to be described as “disruptive,” it’s quantum computing. Not only does it have the potential to deliver radical changes in medicine, energy and materials, but the science it’s based on is fundamentally different from the binary world of zeroes and ones that has driven the digital technology revolution up until now.

But that creates challenges as well, not least within the investment community. When you’re striking out in a new direction — and to a large extent into unknown territory — there simply isn’t a pre-existing roadmap to follow. That makes funding decisions trickier than ever.

Every investment is a calculated risk, but in the case of quantum computing, what exactly should investors be betting on? And what does smart due diligence look like in this environment?

Just as the quantum world requires us to think differently about how physics works, it also requires investors to look beyond short-term milestones, ever more ambitious roadmaps, and quick returns, and instead embrace a bigger picture. That is where the real value of quantum computing resides and crucially, what it really takes to get there.

When hype goes bad

Hype is an inevitable part of the investment cycle whenever a new sector emerges, and quantum computing has been as guilty as any previous technology area in talking itself up. But by tying their business plan to a traditional startup funding model, many companies have found themselves caught in a trap regarding the technology itself, with developers having to focus on short-term returns in order to keep investors on board.

The starkest illustration of this quandary is the way in which many quantum startups have concentrated on producing what are referred to as NISQ, or Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum systems.

These may have been quicker to develop — and met initial targets set out in investment plans — but they’re inherently limited in what they can do. To run the type of high-end applications capable of delivering on the quantum hype i.e., a major step change in our ability to solve many of the world’s most pressing problems, requires systems that operate with lower error rates and substantially more qubits than current or next-generation systems can achieve.

In short, many startups have over-promised and have then had to prop up over-inflated achievements as the next quantum breakthrough. But by betting on NISQ, they’ve effectively sped into a blind alley — leaving some investors severely disillusioned. Arguably, this is partly an issue with a traditional funding model that expects relatively quick returns from new technology, with quantum computing assumed to be no different.

But there’s also been a lack of clarity within the quantum industry itself about what real success looks like, what really needs to be done, and how long it might take to achieve it.

No future without scalability

In quantum, no one has all the answers. The real question is: How much do you need to understand to make a smart, confident bet?

The future of quantum computing hinges on scalability. To unlock the most transformative applications, we need systems that are not just large, but fault-tolerant — built from millions of individually controllable, error-corrected qubits that can operate reliably at scale. NISQ-era systems may produce eye-catching demos, but as a means to solving high-impact real-world problems they are a dead end.

At my company, Universal Quantum, we believe that the future hinges on engineering, not hype. That means building machines designed for manufacturability and modularity from day one — and doing so using standard industrial processes.

Our machines are based on fully integrated microwave-controlled trapped-ion qubit chips and our error-free chip interconnect technology, enabling unprecedented qubit connectivity and scale that is required for the most high-impact applications. Crucially, we have ensured right from the get-go that our machines are based on a mature supply chain including our advanced chips that all come out of a commercial silicon fab.

It is important to look past ambitious roadmaps and dive deeper into what really drives scalability, covering areas such as modularity including the necessary interconnect technology, manufacturability, qubit quality and power, to name but a few. At the end of the day, the most commonly used metrics to evaluate the technology of a quantum computer company, namely achieved the fidelity and qubit count, give absolutely no indication of that technology approach being able to deliver the extremely ambitious roadmaps most companies nowadays have and ultimately scale to the million qubit level.

Yes, the journey to a fault-tolerant quantum computer may span longer than a typical investment cycle, but with the right strategy in place, we are already seeing that significant recurring revenue can indeed be generated and is expected to continue to increase as the technology matures along a clear path to the million qubit level.

Quantum won’t reward the flashiest announcement. It will reward the best engineering. And that starts with scale.

Quantum is a sovereign capability

One last thought. Governments also have a vital role to play in making the right funding decisions, both as customer and advocate. Given its revolutionary potential, quantum computing is about sovereign capability as well, so governments need to be proactively investing in its future development now.

This goes far beyond technological ambition. Quantum computing is set to power the next era of traditional industries, therefore, global leadership in sectors such as aerospace, finance or pharmaceuticals will depend on access to quantum computing. Countries that dominate these fields today could quickly fall behind if they fail to build or secure this capability. Economic prosperity, industrial competitiveness and national resilience are all at stake.

This also extends deeply into defense. For example, as future defense capabilities require a more data-driven and interconnected approach, access to quantum computing will be a critical

differentiator in intelligence, simulation and real-time strategic decisionmaking. The advantages quantum offers here are exponential.

The space race delivered GPS, miniaturized electronics, robotics, communications satellites and solar tech that transformed our world. Quantum’s potential and influence will be far greater — not just in the lab, but across the systems and structures that underpin modern life, aerospace included. The difference is that this time, missing out won’t just cost innovation points. It could cost global relevance.

Sebastian Weidt is the co-founder and CEO of Universal Quantum, a U.K.-headquartered company building transformational quantum computers that will help humanity solve some of its biggest challenges. He is also a professor of quantum computing and entrepreneurship at the University of Sussex. Weidt has authored numerous publications in the field, including the world’s first blueprint for constructing a large-scale trapped-ion quantum computer. This groundbreaking work has paved the way for this technology to unlock a range of world-changing applications that have the potential to improve lives and drive innovation on a global scale.